The digital revolution
continues to roil publishing, so here are a few of my recent observations. I suspect at least three of these five are correct. It’s your job to figure
out which three.
- Shift from books to e-books is leveling out
- Content becoming more profitable than e-reader devices
- Amazon continues to innovate ahead of traditional publishers
- Traditional publishers are adapting
- Indie-e-books are a saturated market
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| Can traditional publishers fight off the pesky indies? |
Shift From books to e-books is
leveling out
For the
prior five years, my printed book sales as a percent of total sales have
declined. Until this year. In 2013, the ratio of print, e-book, audio, and
large print sales have all held steady with 2012. In fact, in recent months, I
have seen a slight resurgence in printed books. I suspect this means that the
e-book phenomenon has reached a mature state.
Content becoming more profitable than
e-reader devices
Amazon
appears to be shifting its e-book strategy, with increased emphasis on content
rather than on selling Kindles. Device prices have dropped as technology-prone
readers have for the most part already purchased Kindles. Now, the big money is
in selling content and annual device upgrades. Amazon has taken a couple of subtle
steps to nudge e-book prices up, or more precisely to inhibit low or zero priced content.
Amazon continues to innovate ahead of
traditional publishers
Amazon has
recently started two new programs. The Matchbook feature allows publishers to
offer a steeply discounted Kindle version to print book purchasers. This is
doubly clever. Matchbook encourages book purchases through Amazon
rather than competitors who cannot offer a similar deal on the market-leading Kindle.
Matchbook also adds revenue without cannibalizing either format, while at the
same time furthering Kindle domination. The second program is called Kindle Countdown Deal, which allows publishers to program discounted e-books for a limited time. The trick here is that Amazon "counts down" the remaining discount days to build urgency into the buy decision. Both of these are attempts by Amazon to increase their control over e-book discounting.
Traditional publishers are adapting
Even a
battleship can eventually turn. Traditional publishers are flexing their
promotional muscles and showing contract flexibility with their bestselling
authors. Mid-list authors aren't getting any better treatment, but they seldom
made money for traditional publishers anyway. Few care if they jump ship. It
looks like it’s turning into a build your
platform first world. By the end of the publishing digital revolution, it’s
possible traditional publishers will be more profitable.
Indie-e-books are a saturated market
First
giving away books for free quit working, now it’s hard to sell e-books at 99¢. When there are tens of thousands of e-books published every month,
it’s hard for any particular author to get noticed, despite whatever financial
shenanigans are employed. As more and more indie-authors experience weak sales,
a growing number will pursue other endeavors. This will reduce supply until we
reach market equilibrium. In the meantime, indie competition will be a
slugfest.